Tuesday, May 26, 2015

People expect free stock tips as if it's their birth right

This is guest post by another good Analyst friend BMS

Imagine this, you have graduated from B-School and have joined one of the leading broking firms in the country, you are happy to have landed PPO (Pre-Placement Offer) because of your fantastic summer internship.  new-jobEverybody knows first couple of days (in some case weeks & in few months) is very tiring & busy in just figuring out best way to reach office on time, who works in what department & where he sits and how much power he has (whether he can get you fired or not), also few other very important things like, various short cuts to reach canteen/cafeteria to catch tables for lunch, or test taste various food option in office vicinity and of course where loo is (in many office, it’s actually a puzzle to find toilet). Above all, navigating huge office how to reach your cubicle from door & get out, also route map from your cubicle to cabins of key people in office.

Anyway once these are done, up pops a family function at relatives place,  since ovarian lottery choose Indian family for your birth you are pretty much compelled to visit these functions no matter how much you dislike these events or people who are having this function. Also, since now you have MBA degree from prestigious Mumbai University (don’t ask me name of Institute) and work at one of the leading broking firm of country, you are in Market and are on display boy. You are suppose to act like sofa set, that sofa sellers’ drags to every cross country interior related exhibition.

family-reunion

Anyway so you tag along with your parents to event and look for quick get away, but you can’t, you are introduced to every relative as working in “XYZ Broking firm ltd” the leading stock broker of the country and next thing you know they are asking for “few tips” to make quick buck, you are like “damn, I am new I don’t know anything yet what am I suppose to say?”, you father is looking at you with chest filled air that has widen from 40 to 50 and expects you to rattle few of stock ideas that would move up tomorrow 5-10% first thing in morning. You are torn between your “dharm” being honest & giving genuine advice (that is no stock idea)  and your proud parents, so what do you do?...you go middle path, you say “uncle buy Reliance, Tata , Birla (you can never go wrong with those :D).  However they are never satisfied with such ideas, they give you a look that says “I know tata , reliance, birla”, given me something better, give me some tadkata badhakta item (new spicy dish or naya maal).

free1

However story doesn’t end there, this is not one time thing, every event or get together where people meet & greet, ask you for free advice. Forget relatives, even a relative of relative or friend of friend who somehow comes in contact with you, if you happen to go to college or MBA institutes more than students, faculties & director ask you for few tips. During early job years, you are like new kid who has started going to college who one day back was school boy. You feel superficial power, ego, you act as if you are something, you act as if somebody has handed over you some power…you behave that way to impress people (read: girls). Of course over time you realize how dumb you are in reality. Same thing happens when you start work in stock market, in beginning you start feeding them stock tips (market index at 6,000-7,000 middle of 2005) but then over time (market tops 22,000- Jan-2008, goes down to 9,000-Feb-2009) you realize how dumb actually you have been.  You go back and look at all your recommendation how they have fared, you check what if you had invested Rs10,000 in each of those stock recommendation and what would be value of it now?  you see most stock are down by 50-90%, baring few. And that’s when it hits you, how much stupid you are with your MBA Finance degree. How much loss you have caused to those people’s hard earned money.

But people around you who are not regular stock market investor, still come to you ask for free stock tip as if it’s their birth right and now what do you do? You either tell them (1) I don’t have any stock tips or (2) you try to explain them that you can’t make money in day or week or month it takes years, in either cases people just nod their head and move on with thought in their mind like “you have lost it” or “you don’t know anything you are stupid idiot” or “you are afraid somebody will more richer than you, hence you don’t share”.

Most of us have pretty good set of parents, and we seldomly do thank them when they shared their pearls of wisdom. Like when they told you “Money Saved is Money Earned” and “don’t take/buy anything just because it is free or has something free with it, chances are you have already paid for it or will pay for it for long time in future”. When stock brokers give you free stock tips, it’s because he knows you would trade with him and he would charge you brokerage (dalali) and that’s how he earns for his hard work (mehnet) right from setting up office to generating that stock tip and sharing it with you. So as Mom said it, “Nothing is free” (or your economist said, “There are no free lunches”). This is how no matter what happens to stock market whether it goes up or down, brokers are happy, because his clients are gone trade with him, because everybody is afraid to pass up the possible money making opportunity.

Saturday, May 23, 2015

Read, Learn, Improve - 23-May-15

Read, Learn, Improve - 23-May-15

Poor Little Rich Women – Link here

Inside Zappos CEO Tony Hsieh's radical management experiment that prompted 14% of employees to quit – Link here

Why do men exist? Scientific study offers an explanation – Link here

What If Everybody Didn't Have to Work to Get Paid? – Link here

Why the ancient art of poisoning appears to be making a killer comeback – Link here

How Do You Utilize 2nd Level Thinking? – Link here

Your Home Doesn't Matter for Tesla's Dream of a Battery-Powered Planet – Link here

Peter Thiel on the Future of Innovation – Link here

Profit Margins in a “Winner Take All” Economy – Link here

Behavioural economics has made headway, but still has a long way to go – Link here

The Lunar Gold Rush: How Moon Mining Could Work – Link here

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Why do we lie?

I was on my way for a client meeting with a colleague, given it would be rush hour we thought of travelling local by first class. On my way to station, I was trying to recollect likely ticket cost I paid last time for journey. I thought it would cost around 240 per ticket and we were 2 so it would be 480. I removed 500 note from purse and walked towards ticket window. I handed money and said “first class, 2 churchgate return”, person nodded and started punching on computer and took money. He handed me 20 rupees and ticket. I took it and was moving away from window towards station he called “hey wait”. I came back to his window and he handed me cash worth Rs260/-. I was shocked, I was wrong by miles, each ticketed cost Rs120/-. Ticket cashier had opportunity to take that extra cash home, but he didn’t. Makes me wonder, what makes one lie?

The Emotional Investing Roller Coaster

courtesy BlackRock

emtional ride

Monday, May 18, 2015

Failure of Mobile Money - Theory of Distrust or Easy entry or none

Failure of Mobile Money - Theory of Distrust or Easy entry or none

As an Analyst we let data & numbers do the talking, however as one analyzes more companies, industry and people one understands it’s often small thing that make & break numbers. However for today’s post I don’t have any number to back up my conclusion specifically pertaining to India I have discussed in my post.

So here is the basic point of mine, mobile operators launch money transfer service in India (mobile penetration of 90-100%) & in developing nation of Kenya (mobile penetration of 60%-75%). Any guess where it is more successful?.....its Kenya.

Just imagine a Kenya’s 25% of GDP flowing through mobile transfer with help of 2/3rd adult population of country (Link-1 , Link - 2). Airtel launched Airtel Money with help of Infosys, while Vodafone original inventor of mobile money transfer bought its M-Pesa brand to India. In case of India I doubt that even 1% was managed by Airtel & Vodafone’s of the world.

Some more stats to give insight one Goldman Sachs –

  • There are 20mn credit cards outstanding vs 50 mn registered Paytm users.

  • 89% or 36mn people in India pay income tax vs 45% in USA & 20% in China.

  • 400mn people have bank accounts in India, of which probably 125mn were opened in last 1 year itself.


Having said that I would agree industry scenario that existed in Kenya was different compared to India, like single company Safaricom (Vodafone subsidiary) held 75% of market share. In case of India it would be in range of ~27% - Airtel, 24% - Vodafone, Idea – 12%, RComm – 12% etc. however just because you are dominant player doesn’t mean you can force people to use your product.  In case you are wondering they didn’t promote it properly, please feel free to check out YouTube and search for “Airtel Money ad”, there were tonnes of Ad and some were pretty nice. However you can’t force people to use your product, you can entice them.

Look at it this way, Nestle Maggi has ~80% market share in noodles segment, can it force you to use Maggi ketchup? I know it’s not exact analogue given mobile commerce and mobile service are on same device, but there is limit to which one can control free will of human being.

Other reason can be it was money; central bank/Finance Ministry of Kenya/Govt didn’t really bother or create too much barrier for company to operate this service. That way India’s RBI never had problem with internal money transfer, however when money is coming in & out of country, it would surely need some monitoring (hence PayPal & Uber faced RBI’s regulatory wall), which to me seems fine (however this may sooner disappear in near future). Anyway hence we had PayTM & Freecharger come scoop the market.

One search on Google about success of mobile money transfer in India and you get few positive articles. And do it for Kenya or Africa and you would get tonnes of article along with facts & figure that would make you wonder “WTH”.

So that makes me wonder what happened, where did Indian mobile company go wrong? That led me think more philosophically and I came up with two possible theories 1) “Theory of Distrust” and 2) “Easy entry”.

Theory of Distrust

In its early days of VAS (Value Added Service) all mobile companies started offering this to all its customer for free or at nominal cost, followed by subscribe option at pay (deducted from prepaid balance or added in bill). As time went by Mobile operator saw very few people subscribing to these VAS service, I think most of the people opted for Ring Back Tone/ Caller tune but very few opted for jokes, cricket scores or news, or astrology or music etc. Telecom operators could see internal revenue targets not getting met or not getting their dream revenue, so what did they do? This is probably were greed overtook and they simply activated VAS service without subscriber permission. Whenever subscriber noticed and complained, discontinue it, but milk it till the time he didn’t notice. If you know anybody who has been using mobile for over past 10 year, chances are s/he would have either experienced this or seen it happened to somebody close or at least seen customer fight with retail store from where he recharged his prepaid.

This unfortunately incident “taking money without permission” was done by many telecom operators and over span of time, this created very negative impact and distrust among its customer base. This probably hindered the growth of their respective money transfer services.

Easy entry

Try opening a bank account and you would be surprised at number of documents you need to open. For general masses who work on daily wages who don’t get their food from PDS without bribing or nothing at all, procuring identification proof, address proof and what not is dream come true (hence they ran for aadhar card registration). They are anyway scared to speak to people in formal attire, they never dare entered a bank.

So poor were afraid to use mobile operator’s mobile money transfer scheme and scared to enter bank. In absence of any data I am not sure whether my theories are right and there probably exist another explanation on why country doesn’t have huge banking penetration and parallel economy running that in turn increase black money economy.

However PayTM & freecharger can definitely lead the way of increasing penetration, which slowly govt can bring them in system. I believe hence RBI opened door for setting up small payment banks. Most Telecom operators are retrying their luck by tying up with various banks. Will they succeed in their second/third coming? While going by success of PayTM and Freecharger, it looks difficult to me, but let’s wait & watch.

Read, Learn, Improve - 16-May-15

Experience or Expertise? – Link here

Kotak - Mobility as service - insight into Car mobility & changing dynamics of auto industry – Link here

The Tesla battery heralds the beginning of the end for fossil fuels – Link here and will solve power crisis in India – Link here

Rare African plant signals diamonds beneath the soil – Link here

Recently Teva expressed interest in taking over another generic player Mylan and Mylan Board Unanimously Rejects Unsolicited Expression of Interest from Teva, one ought to read the full letter of rejection to get idea with what amazing clarity company is operating – Link here

Stephen Hawking Explains The Origin of the Universe – Link here

Equity MF vs Real Estate vs Gold – Link here

'Father of Euro' Knew It Was a Problem Child – Link here

12 Tricks to Appear Smart in Emails [Infographic] –Link here

The days are long but the decades are short - 30 advice from somebody who turned 30 – Link here

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Stages in Disciplinary proceedings for civil servants in India

I don't have data on how many civil servants ever get punished against complaint filed, but most people know its no point in complaint because things never proceed or proceed at such snail place, then one gives up. however nobody knows how exactly to proceed and whats the process, Goldman Sachs came up with report and carried the whole process, I have pasted the whole process below, check it out.

Stages in Disciplinary proceedings for civil servants in India (click on pic to increase size)

Complaint flow of govt servant

Monday, May 11, 2015

Read, Learn, Improve - 9-May-15

Fantastic words with no easy translation in other languages – Link here

Recap: The 2015 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting – Link here

Was the Ramayana actually set in and around today’s Afghanistan? – Link here

Secret Shorts: Nameless Naysayers Shake Markets in Twitter Age – Link here

Absolute Return letter - How to dress for a rainy day – Link here

9 Construction Projects That Broke the Bank – Link here

Hey, Looters! Smile: The Cops Can Now Track You Down Anywhere, Anytime – Link here

Engineers of addiction - SLOT MACHINES PERFECTED ADDICTIVE GAMING. NOW, TECH WANTS THEIR TRICKS – Link here

India-Bangla land swap: was the world's strangest border created by a game of chess? – Link here

You or someone you love menstruates – here’s what you need to know about it – Link here

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Difference between India - US

No long post just screen shot of one website 1) India Edition and 2) US Edition, just have a look and you get the message, needless to say Why Times Group completely missed web revolution

Diff between India-USADiff between India-USA-2

It doesn't take genius to figure out sooner or later you will have competition at your doorstep who gives better product/service.

Case in point scroll.in, just compared content of it with any major newspaper and you would clearly see marked difference in QUALITY and user experience.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Doesn’t matter how ahead guy goes, his past never leaves him

This is guest post from an Analyst friend, that shows you a sad side of stock market.

Doesn't matter how ahead guy goes, his past never leaves him

So here was analyst, away from his old job & old company. In shade of comfort of certainty that he would receive his pay check at the end of the month, things would be better from here on.

As usual first day begins, meeting & greeting everyone at new office, get to know the company, the people, the culture, the work. Get your place, get your system, get your mail id & other things in place and than its lunch time.

Analyst gets down from office, scouts around for place to eat. He finds only joint in area where every level of person comes to eat. He finds a table where middle age plump guy has already perched himself. Analyst asks if he could join him and meets with yes answer. Time goes, analyst checks menu and orders most simple & likely running item of the list while plump guy orders a thali. That’s when young chap enters joint and waves at plump guy. Young guy looks slightly younger than analyst, has forced smile on his face. He comes and sits next to plump guy and says “kaise ho manoj bhai?” manoj bhai reply’s with “bus chal raha hai”. Young chap with bit of hesitation say “yeah kya ho raha hai sir?”, plump guy chooses to just reply with shrug. Just than order of Analyst comes, young chap says “I will have this one”.  Young chap was smiling, but his smile was giving away his fake facade, one could make out a tinge of fear in his smile. He said to plump guy, “sir yeah sab kitna time chalega?, pressure bahut hai”, plump guy nonchalantly replies “dekho jab tak chalta hai”. Smile on young chap was fading, one could easily figure out how hard he was trying to keep it but was miserably failing at doing it. Young chap said “to phir dhundha na suru kar dena chaihye?”, plump guy said “ haan chalu rakhne, mile jaye to nikal jaane ka”. To which young chap replied “but how many people do you think they will remove?”, plump guy said  “kya bol sakte hai aab, dekho”. Plump guy’s tone & manner of reply was clear give away of “anybody & anytime but I am safe”.

All along analyst listen quietly, he was reminded of similar situation he had gone recently, he could feel the young chaps’ emotion right from “fear to anger”

Analyst finished his lunched and walked out with thought in his mind “Doesn’t matter how ahead guy goes, his past never leaves him”.

Saturday, May 2, 2015

Read, Learn, Improve - 2-May-15

The Fine Line Between Smart and Illegal – Link here

Backwards Biking and Thinking Differently - Best video that explain concept of Heuristic/ learn-unlearn & re-learn – Link here

Charlie Munger Comments and the Art of Stock Picking – Link here

The remarkable life and lessons of the $8 million janitor – Link here

Kraft – Heinz Investor Presentation – Link here

Here is BuzzFeed’s first pitch deck to investors in 2008 – Link here

Cigarettes, damn cigarettes and statistics – Link here

The Timeless Nature of the Herd Mentality – Link here

Happiness in the air – we all know touch is one of the greatest senses and is used as non-verbal communication tool – a handshake, a hug or romantic hand holding – Imagine you had fight with your partner before leaving for work. During the day you realize mistake & want make up, what if you could touch his/her palm from miles away?- Link here

Interactive ride of NASDAQ Bubble & Bust – Link here

I've Followed Warren Buffett For Decades And These 10 Quotes Are What I Keep Coming Back To – Link here