Thursday, December 31, 2015

Rules for (Happy) New Year



A Few Simple Rules For Money Managers - Advice to money managers from a money manager – Original Article

One of the biggest hazards of being a professional money manager is that you are expected to behave in a certain way: You have to come to the office every day, work long hours, slog through countless e-mails, be on top of your portfolio (that is, check performance of your securities minute by minute), watch business TV and consume news continuously, and dress well and conservatively, wearing a rope around the only part of your body that lets air get to your brain. Our colleagues judge us on how early we arrive at work and how late we stay. We do these things because society expects us to, not because they make us better investors or do any good for our clients.

Somehow we let the mindless, Henry Ford–assembly-line, 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., widgets-per-hour mentality dictate how we conduct our business thinking. Though car production benefits from rigid rules, uniforms, automation and strict working hours, in investing — the business of thinking — the assembly-line culture is counterproductive. Our clients and employers would be better off if we designed our workdays to let us perform our best.

Investing is not an idea-­per-hour profession; it more likely results in a few ideas per year. A traditional, structured working environment creates pressure to produce an output — an idea, even a forced idea. Warren Buffett once said at a Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting: “We don’t get paid for activity; we get paid for being right. As to how long we’ll wait, we’ll wait indefinitely.”

How you get ideas is up to you. I am not a professional writer, but as a professional money manager, I learn and think best through writing. I put on my headphones, turn on opera and stare at my computer screen for hours, pecking away at the keyboard — that is how I think. You may do better by walking in the park or sitting with your legs up on the desk, staring at the ceiling.

I do my best thinking in the morning. At 3:00 in the afternoon, my brain shuts off; that is when I read my e-mails. We are all different. My best friend is a brunch person; he needs to consume six cups of coffee in the morning just to get his brain going. To be most productive, he shouldn’t go to work before 11:00 a.m.

And then there’s the business news. Serious business news that lacked sensationalism, and thus ratings, has been replaced by a new genre: business entertainment (of course, investors did not get the memo). These shows do a terrific job of filling our need to have explanations for everything, even random events that require no explanation (like daily stock movements). Most information on the business entertainment channels — Bloomberg Television, CNBC, Fox Business — has as much value for investors as daily weather forecasts have for travelers who don’t intend to go anywhere for a year. Yet many managers have CNBC, Fox or Bloomberg on while they work.

You may think you’re able to filter the noise. You cannot; it overwhelms you. So don’t fight the noise — block it. Leave the television off while the markets are open, and at the end of the day, check the business channel websites to see if there were interviews or news events that are worth watching.

Don’t check your stock quotes continuously; doing so shrinks your time horizon. As a long-term investor, you analyze a company and value the business over the next decade, but daily stock volatility will negate all that and turn you into a trader. There is nothing wrong with trading, but investors are rarely good traders.

Numerous studies have found that humans are terrible at multitasking. We have a hard time ignoring irrelevant information and are too sensitive to new information. Focus is the antithesis of multitasking. I find that I’m most productive on an airplane. I put on my headphones and focus on reading or writing. There are no distractions — no e-mails, no Twitter, no Facebook, no instant messages, no phone calls. I get more done in the course of a four-hour flight than in two days at the office. But you don’t need to rack up frequent-flier miles to focus; just go into “off mode” a few hours a day: Kill your Internet, turn off your phone, and do what you need to do.

I bet if most of us really focused, we could cut down our workweek from five days to two. Performance would improve, our personal lives would get better, and those eventual heart attacks would be pushed back a decade or two.

Take the rope off your neck and wear comfortable clothes to work (I often opt for jeans and a “Life is good” T-shirt). Pause and ask yourself a question: If I was not bound by the obsolete routines of the dinosaur age of assembly-line manufacturing, how would I structure my work to be the best investor I could be? Print this article, take it to your boss and tell him or her, “This is what I need to do to be the most productive.

By Vitaliy Katsenelson

 

Saturday, December 26, 2015

Read,Learn,Improve – 26-Dec-15

Read,Learn,Improve – 26-Dec-15



Nice looking girl always catches eye, hence there are hardly any ads without woman/girl in it ;)

The nonsense that is gut instinct – Link here

The most misleading charts of 2015, fixed - how to lie with stats & graphs – Link here

When the KKK Was a Pyramid Scheme – Link here

David Einhorn and Reasons Why Widely Followed Stocks Get Mispriced – Link here

This amazing trash can for the sea could be the answer to the Ganga's garbage problem – Link here

A Short History of Interest Rates – Link here

Warren Buffett Is Wrong: The Bitcoin Proof – Link here

Three Clues for Assessing Management – Link here

Money talks - Has money really changed from shells to digital apps? Underneath, money is always a token of our social relations – Link here

Not everything that counts, can be counted – Link here

Infographic: The World’s Strangest Currencies – Link here

33 Signs that Bitcoin Growth Isn’t Slowing in 2016 – Link here

Friday, December 25, 2015

Christmas & Refugees

Christmas & Refugees




I received this very nice piece in mail from quartz.com, thought i did share with all. Its really good read, its written by Annalisa Merelli. 

One of the key reason why I like this piece is how beautiful it explains the Role of Luck that we all have. Imagine you being born in border town of North Korea, I have never visited nor met anybody who has visited that place. But going by whats written by media, that place pretty much lacks freedom. Imagine just 1 kilometer down the road from your home is country called South Korea and see how your future changes. Closer to home, imagine being born in Pakistan now compare that to being born in India. Some part of your success is because of role of luck, I am not saying we all stop doing what we are doing and waiting for luck to play out or assuming if its in my luck I will get it, why to work for it. All I am saying is, lets just appreciate Luck we have.

Below is the piece by Annalisa Merelli

“Whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me,” Jesus says in Matthew’s gospel. “Whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me.” This is at the very core of Christian values: love your neighbor as yourself—and as your god.

And yet Westerners are, by and large, keeping refugees at bay, bargaining their quotas down, as if the world’s 2.2 billion Christians had never been taught the story of Joseph and Mary being refused accommodation because they were poor strangers.

Perhaps instead we can show mercy for mothers breastfeeding their children on a cold beach, for men who nearly drown trying to swim to shore, for children who have no choice but to follow their parents in chasing a future—any future, anywhere.

These people are the real-life versions of the icons that Christians have come to associate with the passion of god as a human. Let us recognize them as such. Let us acknowledge, once and for all, that being a refugee—of war, poverty, or discrimination—is a sheer function of luck, and we did nothing to deserve our better fate. Whenever and wherever humanity is suffering, we are involved, and the responsibility to offer refuge is ours until the least of us have shelter.—Annalisa Merelli

 

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Auto guy - "Sansakar"

One of the habit/key learning, I have picked up from one of my Guru who happens to be Analyst-cum-Fund Manager is talking to auto-rickshaw/taxi driver, they always have some interesting story & learning. So hence forth I would post such random encounters under the heading of "auto guy", here is first one

 

 



"Sansakar"

It was around 6:30pm when I left office, reached gate and saw evening traffic hurling around, weather felt pretty perfect not hot not too cold just perfect. Held out hand for auto, and one halted right next to me. Asked him for home and he said welcome. Auto driver seemed very old around mid-50s to near 60s, I asked him how long has he been driving, he said almost 15 years now. I asked how long before you retire and he says couple of more years, although he doesn't like doing it he has to, I said "pappi pet ka sawal hotha hai" and he acknowledged and reiterated. Talked along the way about his family - wife n kids, his brothers family, who's wife got elected in gram sabha.

Then more on his kids education and life, who are now in his hometown Lucknow, one studying masters and other preparing for IAS exam, thought they have been born n breed in city of Mumbai. I asked if it's difficulty there to live once you are used to life in mumbai. He said Sir agar aap mumbai mein bimar pad jao aur doctor ke pass jao, doctor paisa leta hai aur thik kardeta hai. Waha par paise le leta hai par kaam nahi karta.

I remembered ovarian lottery (concept by Warren Buffett) many get it and many don't.  We talked few other things when he asked me where I m from? and I was bit confused what to answer. If anybody had asked me that question during my school days I would say, Mumbai. In college, it was Mumbai and then in post graduate it continued to be Mumbai. But once I started working, traveling & interacting with tonnes of different people, started learning about their life & history, I started rethinking on who on that question "where I am from". we are continuously evolving.

So when auto guy asked me where I am from, I said parents are from Gujarat but I m born n breed here. He replied par sanaskar Gujarat ke hai. Surprised, I asked why does he say so, he replied "the way you talk with respect". Mumbai ka aadmi khali saaman lena chaahta hai dena hai, aap woh nahi ho. Got down gave him money I said thank you bhaiya and he replied dhanayvaad.

People crave for "Respect" but are miser when it comes to giving it.

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Read,Learn,Improve – 19-Dec-15



Read,Learn,Improve – 19-Dec-15

 

Google Ventures Owns Part of Several Unicorns, but the Biggest (And Trickiest) Is Uber – Link here

 

Jason Zweig on Wall Street’s big lie – Link here

 

Superstition and the inherent cruelty of rationalists – Link here

 

The Misunderstanding of Peter Lynch’s Investment Style – Link here

 

What proportion of a CEO's success is down to luck? – Link here

 

How Star Wars Conquered the Galaxy - The economic power of the greatest movie franchise ever – Link here

 

Meet The 2nd Largest PR Firm In The World: The U.S. Government – Link here

 

Auto Parts Industry Looks for New Deals - Suppliers are shifting focus from share repurchases to technology acquisitions – Link here

 

What Happens When There Are Fewer Suckers at the Poker Table? – Link here

 

Winning the Driverless Car Wars – Link here

 

A billion-dollar question: Are Flipkart, Snapdeal or Ola actually too big to fail? – Link here

 

The Engineering of Volkswagen’s Aggressive Ambition – Link here

 

Softbank Too Bids at Rs 4.63/kWh for 350 MW Solar – An Analysis of the Magic Number 4.63 – Link here

 

The future of medicine is testing our body fluids at home - From earwax to faeces, your secretions have secrets – Link here

 

Weekends, not Diwali, is when consumers spend – Link here

 

Does this orangutan cracking up at a magic trick prove animals have a sense of humour? – Link here

 

Saturday, December 12, 2015

Read,Learn,Improve – 12-Dec-15

Read,Learn,Improve – 12-Dec-15

 

Finland plans to give every citizen a basic income of 800 Euros a month – Link here

The Richest Photographer in the World – Link here

The Sports Bubble Is About to Pop – Link here

Half of Delhi’s transport problem is that it can’t sort out its autowallahs – Link here

The Yahoo! Chronicles! Is this the End Game? – Link here

12 Simple Ways To Be More Interesting – Link here

A simple invention that can seal a gunshot wound within 20 seconds is now FDA-approved – Link here

'If I had talked about aligning with the BJP, it was just a political strategy': Sharad Pawar – Link here

The World's Smartest Bad Investors – Link here

To See the Future of Electric Cars, Look East – Link here

Why is industry fleeing Punjab? – Link here

Control the Negotiation Before It Begins – Link here

The Market for Human Hair – Link here

Brazil’s cancer curse - The startling discovery that hundreds of thousands of Brazilians have a genetic mutation that undermines their ability to resist cancer is helping labs worldwide in their search for new treatments for the disease. Sue Armstrong reports – Link here

Saturday, December 5, 2015

Read, Learn, Improve - 5-Nov-15

Read, Learn, Improve - 5-Nov-15



 

The Absolute Return Letter- The Next Driver of Productivity – Link here

Understanding The Gita: A guide for modern readers – Link here

India ponders using GM mosquitoes to fight dengue – and climate change could make this necessary – Link here

The technology giant faces the biggest shift since its founding - Google searches for its future – Link here

Who owns space? US asteroid-mining act is dangerous and potentially illegal – Link here

Investment Noise And How To Deal With It – Link here

How Big Pharma Gave America Its Heroin Problem – Link here

How to save yourself from a bad startup idea that looks good – Link here

Financial Considerations for Collectors of Art, Antiques and the Esoteric – Link here

How to build a strong board – Link here

Why Warren Buffett Is a World-Class Con Man – Link here

CLIMATE CHANGE - Eight Ways to Save the Planet – Link here

Victoria’s Secrets Revealed as Bramaker Becomes Billionaire – Link here

The Industrial Internet, and How It’s Revolutionizing Mining – Link here

RBI effectively lifts all FDI restrictions, including etail & retail – Link here

Infographic-Macau's Newest $3.2 Billion Casino an Extravagance of Entertainment – Link here

Basecamp valuation tops $100 billion after bold VC investment – Link here

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Why did Stock go up so fast?

This happened to me some time in 2014, just after Modi had won landmark election mandate....still gives me hearty laugh


 



Why did Stock go up so fast?

So I met an acquaintance after long time, after exchanging usual pleasantries, talks took turn towards stock market. This acquaintance is typical trader, who only believes buying today and selling tomm. These kinds of guys are very impatient; temperament is of action & reaction. Their mantra is “if you move you survive or you die”, “make money today, who has seen tomm”. In past whenever we have spoken on few occasions I always tell him “I don’t do trading its doesn’t suit me. I buy and hold for 2-3 or more years – long term investor thing”. But man being man created by nature, he doesn’t believe that is possible, there is always circling question on his face that clearly announced “how can one survive without trading?”

Image result for why so fast

This one time I visited  him and he had looks that  had complaint written all over it. He reminded me of one stock that I had discussed during last meeting with him and I quickly admitted yes, and that broke the dam. In bit harsh tone he said “you say you only do long term thing”, I nodded my head in admission and he replied “but this stock went up 5 times in less than a year, how do you explain that?”. I was not sure what to say, but acquaintance being impatient, again repeated the question and demanded answer from me how did stock rise up so fast when same was suppose to happen over 2-3 years.  I knew I have to get out or else guy would probably sue me for loss in probable profit he could have made. I said “it’s all because of Modi winning election” and made quick dash, not before he asked for another stock tip and I gave him name in hurry. I hope stock doesn’t go up so fast and so soon.