Read,Learn, Improve - 26-Mar-16

Read,Learn, Improve - 26-Mar-16




When U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages - http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2016/01/16/when-us-air-force-discovered-the-flaw-of-averages.html

AlphaGo vs. Lee Se-dol: Why a win for AI is not a lose for humanity - http://www.foundingfuel.com/article/alphago-vs-lee-sedol-why-a-win-for-ai-is-not-a-lose-for-humanity/

Our Economy Is Obsessed with Efficiency and Terrible at Everything Else - https://hbr.org/2016/03/our-economy-is-obsessed-with-efficiency-and-terrible-at-everything-else

Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Machines - https://medium.com/basic-income/deep-learning-is-going-to-teach-us-all-the-lesson-of-our-lives-jobs-are-for-machines-7c6442e37a49#.vlnoszo0z

Investing Pitfalls to Avoid - http://microcapclub.com/2016/01/investing-pitfalls-to-avoid/

I'm the low-caste, dark-skinned Indian who really invented email and I'm alive! - http://www.dailyo.in/technology/email-ray-tomlinson-information-technology-text-messaging-low-caste-racism-in-america-us-supreme-court/story/1/9421.html

Unsustainable losses will morph wallets into merchant aggregators. What does it mean for players like PayTM? - http://yourstory.com/2016/03/upi-impact-wallets/

The highly regulated, expensive area of finance Silicon Valley is now eager to disrupt - http://qz.com/635437/this-is-the-next-area-of-finance-silicon-valley-wants-to-disrupt/

Three charts that show how Monsanto seeds changed cotton farming in India Genetically modified Bt cotton triggered a revolution – but not without costs - http://scroll.in/article/805421/three-charts-that-show-how-monsanto-seeds-changed-cotton-farming-in-india

Following an SC ruling, Andhra eyes Rs 70,000-crore bonanza from Telangana  - http://scroll.in/article/805637/following-an-sc-ruling-andhra-eyes-rs-70000-crore-bonanza-from-telangana

We’re in a Bunny Market - http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/03/were-in-a-bunny-market/

Why Cryonics Makes Sense - http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html

Read,Learn, Improve - 19-Mar-16

The Sadness and Beauty of Watching Google’s AI Play Go – Link here

Your ears are the next frontier of biometric security – Link here

Nobody knows anything (oil price edition) – Link here

From rags to riches to rags in 12 years: the extraordinary story of Nathan Tinkler – Link here

After Cash: All Fun and Games Until Somebody Loses a Bank Account – Link here

How Where You Are or What You’re Doing Alters Your Sense of Time – Link here

How to survive and scale in hyperlocal e-commerce – Link here

Understanding Epistemology – Link here

Sergio Marchionne Has Seen the Auto Industry’s Future: He’s Not Interested – Link here

Why Canada Is Dumping Gold -- and China Isn’t – Link here

Hard Truths For Investors to Wrap Their Heads Around - It's so hard to believe. – Link here

China and the Commodity Complex – Link here

The progress of science (and ourselves) – Link here

Buffett Explains Bubbles – Link here

(Video) Travis Kalanick: Uber's plan to get more people into fewer cars – Link here

Read,Learn, Improve - 12-Mar-16

The ETF Files - How the U.S. government inadvertently launched a $3 trillion industry – Link here

Inside the Global Scotch Shortage – Link here

A Fireside Chat With Charlie Munger – Link here

Investor communication: Plugging information asymmetry – Link here

Comments on Mistakes and Buffett’s Original Berkshire Purchase – Link here

Maybe Bitcoin Will Grow Up to Be a Currency – Link here

Machine-Learning Algorithm Aims to Identify Terrorists Using the V Signs They Make – Link here

Facebook is eating the world – Link here

Remarkable surgery uses stem cells to regenerate an eye’s lens and restore vision – Link here

If babies were randomly allocated to families would racism end? – Link here

Investors Buy Gold ETFs at Record Pace [Chart] – makes me wonder if investors are looking at melt down in equity+debt+currency = Safe haven asset - Link here

Currency and the Collapse of the Roman Empire – Link here

YouTube - Kotak Institutional Equities Conference 2016 - Alok Kejriwal – Link here

Costly typo or mistake - II

It seems to be season of typos & mistakes. Since kingfisher is in the air, let me narrate you small funny incident.

Yesterday I received a call from a business correspondent asking me “what is the impact on sales of kingfisher beer because of SBI restricting its usage?”, I was taken aback for a moment because to the best of my knowledge banks had “Kingfisher Airlines” brand with them.  So I enquired reporter where has this piece of news come in and was pointed to Times of India ad by SBI, I have pasted below



In simple words notices read as SBI now owns the brand name “Kingfisher” and nobody can use it without their permission. Meaning United Breweries that sell Kingfisher beer will probably see their major portion of revenue nose dive or company would probably need to cough up ~Rs7000cr (or any other value that SBI seems fit) for usage of brand.  This got me off guard again, I was dead sure Heineken/United breweries was away from this mess.

However it wasn't until evening and today morning news flow started trickling in, ad had small mistake, SBI had right over “Kingfisher Airline” brand and not “Kingfisher”.

Some typos & mistake....all in day of work…phew.

What makes people act honest?

So I was at Visharam ghat at Mathura couple of weeks back, I was strolling around and enjoying the serene river view of Yamuna, soft winter air was blowing in my face – overall weather was so pleasant then one feels relaxed and calm. One of the things that everybody who visits Yamuna does it bring back a loti/kalash filled with Yamunaji. I had filled kalash with Yamuna and got it sealed by welder, however it was still not covered. As per Hinduism to protect it from aa pavitra, it needs to covered with jute cloth.

So in pics this is what empty kalash looks like and next to it is filled & covered with kantan/jute.

[gallery ids="510,511" type="rectangular"]

 

So I was strolling on small by lanes of Vishramghat searching for a shop that could put jute cover on kalash, when I spotted one shop selling empty & filled kalash. I went nearby store and saw owner gathering his stuff, I asked him if he can cover kalash with jute and he replied positively, but questioned how many pieces? I said only 1. He hesitated and then said thik hai sir, dukan band kar raha ha thaa, par koi baat nahi. I asked how much would it cost me and he said Rs125/-, I was shocked to hear it and said “bhai itna mehenga kyu?” he replied thik hai sir Rs20 (bies rupaiya) de dena. Now I was like…what…? He replied sir bies neeche koi nahi karega…I was still thinking what’s happening, did he quote Rs20 or he meant Rs120/-. So finally thought to clarify and asked bhai Rs20 ki Rs120 ? and he smiled and said sir Rs20/-…I was oh ok.

I handed over my kalash to him, while he went inside to search for raw material, while I took seat outside his shop. He came back with jute material & started working, then he asked me “sir aapne kya suna thaa?, I replied ek soo paaches (125), he smiled while working on kalash.

Once done he handed me kalash, I gave him Rs100 and said paaches (25) le lena, he replied back with smile koi baat nahi mein bies (Rs20) hi lunga and I was left speechless.

Makes me wonder why people act the way they do, sometime we run in to thieves and some time noble guys. Guy had every chance to make that extra buck but he didn’t, he kept his word.

World & People never fails to surprise us I guess, have little faith :)

Read, Learn, Improve – 5-Mar-16

 



What’s Next in Computing? -
https://medium.com/@cdixon/what-s-next-in-computing-e54b870b80cc#.dt4fke93i

The Mahabharata of Indian internet unicorns -
http://www.foundingfuel.com/article/the-mahabharata-of-indian-internet-unicorns/

Milton Friedman: The man who gave us monetarism - Witty and insightful quotes
from the most influential economist of the second half of the 20th century -
https://www.valueresearchonline.com/story/h2_storyview.asp?str=30252

The Absolute Return Letter - If only we could blame China -
http://www.arpinvestments.com/downloads/Absolute-Return-Letter/2016/The%20Abso lute%20Return%20Letter%200316.pdf

Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis - A shift is under way
that will lead to widespread adoption of EVs in the next decade -
http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

Jamie Dimon on Finance: ‘Who Owns the Future?’ -
http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-jamie-dimon-interview/

Vulture Investing - http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/vulture-investing

The Immaculate Conception of Reliance Jio -
http://thewire.in/2016/03/04/the-immaculate-conception-of-reliance-jio-23620/

Why did sex evolve? Researchers edge closer to solving longstanding mystery -
http://scroll.in/article/804417/why-did-sex-evolve-researchers-edge-closer-to-solving-longstanding-mystery

The Rise and Fall of Commodities Hedge Fund King Willem Kooyker -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-01/the-rise-and-fall-of-commodities-hedge-fund-king-willem-kooyker

Why America abandoned nuclear power (and what we can learn from South Korea) -
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/29/11132930/nuclear-power-costs-us-france-korea

What Happened When Nigeria Created the World’s Largest Business Plan
Competition? -
http://priceonomics.com/what-happened-when-nigeria-created-the-worlds/

The long read - Welcome to the land that no country wants -
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/03/welcome-to-the-land-that-no-country-wants-bir-tawil

Check In With the Velociraptor at the World’s First Robot Hotel -
http://www.wired.com/2016/03/robot-henn-na-hotel-japan/

It can never happen to me

               (not real monkey that took my glasses)

Do a random survey of drivers and ask them how many of them think they are above average good drivers and almost 90% or above rate themselves good driver. You step back for a moment and think above that, you would understand how we always think of our self to be superior to other and that's how we fall in trap or make sure we commit mistake, this is called as “Illusory superiority”  a form of cognitive bias.

So I wash planning to visit Vrindavan and was googling for info on places, things to do & see, things to be careful about. One of recommendation was be careful of our ancestors "Monkey" and I was like “ya sure that's the least of my problem, I am more worried about human that can harm me in more way” ;-).
So here I am in vrindavan inside car, going in small by-lanes of the holy city, looking at charming old architectures, the bustling of markets, shops selling samosa, kachori and lassi. When suddenly from nowhere this monkey appears and takes aim at my eye glasses and phoof it’s gone... Just like that. I was looking down in car if glasses had fallen below when my driver said “Sirji do you have fruit or food offer him” and I was like what..??? That’s when I noticed monkey playing and trying to take a bite at my glasses at nearby house window. I ran to the store 20 feet away to buy biscuit and small kid came to me "give it to me, I know how to do it" fair enough take it. By this time monkey has switched place and was sitting on rooftop, opposite to store (he was smart enough to follow me). Kid threw biscuit in air to attract monkey’s attention, which in any case already had caught my attention. After missing it for two times, monkey caught biscuit but third time was lucky and left my glasses on rooftop itself (what... can't he at least throw it to me??) kid jumps fast and gets my glasses and ask for his reward.

Something like this happens to all stock market investor by that I mean all - regular retail investor, hot shot hedge fund managers, analyst, etc etc. Things which can go wrong will go wrong for you, especially if you think you are smarter than average.  It’s just matter of time when it happens to you and how you take it. Chances are you are average, so accept it and be careful. Only people from who monkeys won't be able to steal would be locals who have learned lessons through number of years they have spent staying with them.

Let me jot down few not exhaustive lists that will happen to you when you invest in stock market. They are in random order and not in particular importance at all

• Stock you bought will crash by 50% after you have bought for no rhyme or reason understandable to you.


• You will keep averaging your stock till your portfolio comprises 90-95% of single stock.


• There will be SCAM – sooner or later there is always one – it happens everywhere not just India. – so just accept and protect yourself.


• Moment you leverage and best your house, shirt, underwear on one particular stock – you have lost it.


• You will buy stock based on recommendation of newspaper or TV channel and you will lose money.


• You will buy stock based on recommendation of your relationship manager and you will lose money.


• There will always be one stock dominating your portfolio and sooner or later that will correct a lot.


• There will be stock in your portfolio which will not move of years (5-8yrs think of RIL in current context).


• Moment you tell anybody you invest in stock market, people will shower you with free stock trading tips (expect unsolicited sms too)


• Moment you start investing/trading in stock market, you will become expert and feel obligated to share stocks you bought.


• You scoff at idea of long term investment.


• You will be fully invested when market crashes and presents you with opportunity


• You will always have list of TV anchors you would like to date, but you will never have list of stock that you would like to own.


• You will always believe that one can predict future.


• You believe in expert without doing background check on expert

There are many others but I guess for time beings this should suffice and give you some food for thought. It pays to learn before investing, also market has its own way of charging fees for teaching you something, decide what loss you can take, decide if you should hire professional to manage your money or give it to professional or do it yourself – do you have skill set to do it – don’t kid yourself.