Showing posts with label cheap valuation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cheap valuation. Show all posts

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Costly typo or more?

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So if you have used Tinder & Twitter or either of it, you already know about #OnTinderAtTinder. So basically you have nice looking pic on app but in real life you look totally different and its not just limited to female, males do equally indulge into same. Just try it or ask your work colleague ;). Anyway point is, nice looking pic entices you and when you in meet in real life , you are in for a surprise. In Stock market language that's kind of Value Trap, you look at the stock, you see the "attractive valuation" you buy it and then after holding for long time you understand you have got into Value Trap. Valuation were not attractive but cheap and some times stock deserve to to trade at cheap valuation. RS Software is probably Value trap, read on to know more.

This has to be very costly typo or whatever it is, not sure who is responsible for this error – auditor, company officials or somebody who made that particular excel or some secretary who mailed wrong file or did mistake in calculation or company software (so company who made that software would be responsible) etc  etc.

So this company called RS software has been in limelight for giving phenomenal return – 279% over 33% by Nifty over last 5 years…that’s pretty awesome (period from 2011 till 2014)

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However then came correction, stock corrected from high of ~396 to ~120.

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And on 23-jan-16 company declared its 3QFY16 results, given below

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Just look at that line item number 14, showing share of profit /loss of associates – Rs2,009 lakh or Rs20cr effectively wiping up of all the loss company had reported during the quarter. (wrong result copy on BSE)

Now comes the best part or the part where somebody would lose his job & correction in market cap.It happens that it was typo, it was suppose to be just Rs20 lakh or Rs0.20 cr, meaning loss continues (corrected result copy on BSE).

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As of today company has a market cap of around Rs180cr and cash of Rs125cr....one is probably looking at a value trap.

So  long time ago in early days in my career, I remember during one meeting with a company a senior analyst was enquiring with company management about internal controls, risk management, auditors etc and management was like,” ya we use state of the art system” and analyst probed further like what softwares do you use? I was like what does that mean?…what do you mean by that? And bingo management was pretty much caught off guard and they said we use all original softwares by microsoft ,sun, oracle etc etc the best of the best. And if you know how organization are run, one ought to have ERP, to avoid such (above one mistakes) typos and frauds that anybody may try to commit knowingly or unknowlingly. Needless to say installing an ERP doesn’t guarantee that such thing would not happen.If you understand this software you would know that these don’t allow power to be in single hand. Hence committing fraud always needs more than 1 person, moment the number increases chances of fraud reduces, because not everybody has black heart. Hence we have infosys , HDFC, Unilevers, Asian Paint and many such good names.

 

Saturday, January 3, 2015

What’s up with Binny (514215)?

Backgrounder

I have been in market for almost over decade, I had never heard of Binny Ltd (BSE Code - 514215), however I had heard of Mohan Distilleries or Meakin Mohan owner of popular brand Old Monk and many other alcoholic and non- alcoholic brands – Full List.

So when newspaper reported that Binny Ltd would consider merging with Mohan Distilleries (Mohan Meakin), needless to say how much unbelievable news that sounds.

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To verify above news I checked out stock exchange notices and was surprise to find notice did confirm the same. Company had put up notice on 14-Nov-14, full 14 days prior to it was carried in Hindu BusinesslIne (not sure about other major newspaper as I didn’t spot or I missed)

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Interesting thing was stock was up 10% on 14-Nov-14 (Friday) on day of announcement, even thought announcement was posted on BSE at 3.56pm, post market hours (nudge nudge wink wink). And o yeah stock was down for next 4 trading session post that.

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Then another announcement on 26-Nov-14 that says “board would consider development of land”. This was quickly followed by another announcement on 28-Nov-14 that reiterated land development and consider & evaluate merger with Mohan Distiller.

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Stock prices had marginally recovered post going down for few sessions

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Beginning of Upper circuit – 1-Dec-14

Then another announcement on 1-dec-14 that said “The Board has accorded its in-principle approval for the merger of M/s. Mohan Breweries and Distilleries Limited, a Company under the same management along with its Subsidiary, M/s. Arthos Breweries Limited with M/s. Binny Limited and directed the Company to submit the scheme of merger for final approval.”  Now it looks deal would be seal, if you had bought shares on first announcement (14-Nov) by now you would feel redeemed, things are moving, its matter of time before you recover your investment (by now stock was down by ~14% from 14-Nov).

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Day of reckoning - 15-Dec-14

Company made announcement of upcoming board meeting on 18-Dec-14 to update on merger

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It would here that you would feel like Bryan Adams singing “Cloud 9”, from 14-Nov-14 stock would have given return of 61% till 15-Dec-14. However if you had waited for more clarity post first announcement (14-Nov-14) and bought it on 1-Dec-14, return would be 87% till 15-dec-14.

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Beginning of down circuit – 18-Dec-14

Then on 18-Dec-14 company announces “decision to drop merger plan”,

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I am not sure what exactly is cooking up in Binny, but I am sure it raises question of corporate governance.

In markets, very often one discover cheap stock, there is reason why they are cheap.

Binny Ltd – Price (LHS) & Volume (RHS)

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